The Players and Their Odds
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|
WRAPUP
|
| Tiger shoots 68 to win by 2 over Duval, 3 over Mickelson. Calcavecchia
faded. Izawaw, Furyk and Langer finish strong. KEY STAT: Woods
had only 7 bogeys for 72 holes, the best of the top-10 finishers.
Although he was not good in total putts (40th of 47), he was by
far the best at GIRs in the whole field (59, 1st). |
|
72-Hole Top 10 Chart
|
|
Sunday Morning Homestretch Reality Check
|
Best of Leaders
|
Top 10 Fwy GIR, Putts |
Strong
|
Weak
|
| Player |
Score |
Fairways
Top 10= 34-44
|
Greens in Reg.
Top 10= 46-59
|
Total Putts
Top 10=111-121 |
Birdies,
Eagles (E)
|
Bogeys, Double (D) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Woods |
272 (-16) |
40 |
59 (1st) |
121 (T40) |
23 |
7 |
| 2. Duval |
274 (-14) |
39 |
52 |
114 |
23 |
7 + 1D |
| 3. Mickelson |
275 (-13) |
36 (40) |
51 |
112 (T4) |
25 |
8 + 2D |
| T4. Calcavecchia |
278 (-10) |
39 |
52 |
114 |
18 |
6 + 1D |
| T4. Izawa |
278 (-10) |
44 (5) |
51 |
116 |
16 + 3E |
12 |
| T6. Triplett |
279 (-9) |
40 |
52 |
115 |
17 |
8 |
| T6. Furyk |
279 (-9) |
41 |
48 |
111 (3) |
22 |
13 |
| T6. Langer |
279 (-9) |
39 |
51 |
113 (T6) |
20 |
11 |
| T6. Els |
279 (-9) |
41 |
46 (T38) |
113 (T6) |
13 + 2E |
8 |
| T9. Faxon |
280 (-8) |
42 |
54 (T6) |
114 |
20 |
8 +1 Snowman (Quadruple bogey 8 on 11 in Rnd
4) ugh! |
| T9. DiMarco |
280 (-8) |
42 |
54 (T6) |
114 |
19 |
11 |
| T9. Stricker |
280 (-8) |
35 (T42) |
53 (T9) |
119 |
15 + 1E |
9 |
| T9. Cabrera |
280 (-8) |
34 (T44) |
56 (T4) |
118 |
20 |
8 + 2D |
| T9. Jimenez |
280 (-8) |
43 (T6) |
48 |
112 (T4) |
18 + 1E |
7 + 1D |
Final 72-Hole Performance Stats
Top 10 Players in Boldface
|
Fairways - Average Performance for Field=
39.8 of 56 (71.2%) (excludes par 3s)
|
| Top 10: Mediate (48), Katayama (47), Sutton (45), Franco (45),
Izawa (44), Jimenez (43), Parnevik (43), Perry (43),
Brooks (43), Lowery (43) |
Bottom 10: Olazabal (30), Scherrer (33), Couples (33), Cabrera
(34), Weir (34), Lehman (35), Stricker (35), Mickelson
(36), Langham (37), Azinger (37), Toms (37), |
|
Greens in Regulation - Average Performance
for Field= 49.5 of 72 (68.7%)
|
| Top 10: Woods (59), Waldorf (58), Lehman (57), Cabrera
(56), Brooks (56), Faxon (54), DiMarco (54),
Maggert (54), Sutton (53), Houston (53), Stricker (53) |
Bottom 10: Allenby (40), Kaye (43), Leonard (44), Harrington
(44), Olazabal (45), May (45), Langham (45), Franco (45), Roberts
(45), Singh (46), Els (46), Mediate (46), Hart (46), Katayama
(46) |
|
Putting - Average Performance for Field=
117.4 for 72 holes (1.63 per hole)
|
| Top 10: Harrington (106), Olazabal (109), Furyk (111),
Mickelson (112), Jimenez (112), Langer (113),
Els (113), O'Meara (113), Couples (113), Scherrer (113), Mediate
(113) |
Bottom 10: Lehman (127), Waldorf (127), Brooks (127), Sutton
(125), Perry (124), Jones (123), Lowery (123),Woods (121),
Maggert (121), Hoch (121) |
72-Hole Notes
|
Special Cases and Notables
|
| Woods |
Shot his target score and won... simple.
|
| Duval |
Charged up the leaderboard on the last two days, matched Tiger
in stats, but had 1 double bogey and Tiger had none. |
| Mickelson |
Birdie machine with two unfortunate double bogeys. |
| Calcavecchia |
Faded on last day. |
| Izawa |
Chunked his third round (74), but had a great showing overall. |
| Triplett |
Played as sharp as Duval tee-to-green but came up with 6 fewer
birdies. Steady as she goes. 68-70-70-71. |
| Furyk |
Final round 32 on front advanced Furyk nicely, but he was +1
on back nine. Great putting. Just too many bogeys overall. |
| Langer |
Never figured out the front nine, but played the last three
rounds on the back 33-32-33. Great putting. Could have finished
in top 4 except for an off first round 73. |
| Els |
Nothing special on Sunday. Good putting but he missed some greens. |
| Faxon |
Poor 1st round, and snowman 8 (quadruple bogey) on No. 11 in
4th round -- if he had parred No. 11, he would have finished 4th
with a closing 67! Hit a lot of GIRs. |
| DiMarco |
Leaked a little oil over the last two days. |
| Stricker |
Missed some fairways and didn't putt all that great, but hit
GIRs. Great opening round 66 but then pldded along. |
| Cabrera |
Missed fairways but hit the greens. Had a double bogey on the
71st hole that kept him out of the top 5. |
| Jimenez |
Very steady play, good putting, missed a few GIRs. |
|
SUNDAY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
|
|
It looks like a three-player race over the final 18 holes --
in effect, match play with Tiger, Phil, and Calcavecchia. Calc
spots Tiger 2 strokes and Phil 1 stroke. If Tiger cards a double
bogey anywhere, he can be caught. Otherwise, it's Tiger's to
lose.
Generally speaking, PGA Tour events are seldom won unless the
winner ranks in the top 10 in either GIR or Putting (all top-10
players at the 54-hole mark have at least one or the other).
At a minimum, the winner needs a top-10 in one of these two,
plus at least a top-25 in the other. A player who has a top-5
in one and a top-10 in the other (Calcavecchia alone claims
this distinction), or even top-10 in both GIR and Putting (only
Calcavecchia), is very very hard to beat.
Woods appears to be the only current exception to this general
PGA Tour analysis. He sticks so many greens close he doesn't
need a top-25 putting perforance to win. In fact, he's very
nar the bottom in putting for weekend players (38th of 47).
Obviously, Woods doesn't need to putt well to win.
However, at the 54-hole point, the stats picture is sufficiently
clarified that you have to take the stroke advantage into account.
Comparing Tiger and Calcavecchia now is comparing Calcavecchia
giving Woods a 2-stroke headstart on the final 18 holes. So
it comes down to whether Woods keeps the bogeys off his card
and gets a few birdies. If Woods shoots 69-70, he will be hard
to catch.
|
|
54-Hole Top 10 Chart
|
|
Sunday Morning Homestretch Reality Check
|
Best of Leaders
|
Top 10 Fwy GIR, Putts |
Strong
|
Weak
|
| Player |
Score |
Fairways
Top 10= 23-37
|
Greens in Reg.
Top 10= 33-47
|
Total Putts
Top 10=80-93 |
Birdies,
Eagles (E)
|
Bogeys, Double (D) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. Woods |
204 (-12) |
28 |
47 (1st) |
93 (38th of 47) |
17 |
5 |
| 2. Mickelson |
205 (-11) |
28 |
39 |
83 (4th) |
19 |
4 + 2D |
| T3. Calcavecchia |
206 (-10) |
30 |
40 (T8) |
84 (T5) |
14 |
2 + 1D |
| T3. DiMarco |
206 (-10) |
26 |
38 |
81 (3rd) |
15 |
5 |
| T5. Els |
207 (-9) |
32 (T5) |
36 |
85 (T9) |
10 + 2E |
5 |
| T5. Duval |
207 (-9) |
27 |
37 |
85 (T9) |
15 |
4 + 1D |
| T5. Cabrera |
207 (-9) |
27 |
37 |
85 (T9) |
16 |
5 + 1D |
| T8. Triplett |
208 (-8) |
29 |
40 (T8) |
86 |
13 |
5 |
| T8.Mediate |
208 (-8) |
37 (1st) |
36 |
84 (T5) |
16 |
6 + 1D |
| T10.Olazabal |
209 (-7) |
23 |
33 |
80 (1st) |
16 |
9 |
| T10. Faxon |
209 (-7) |
31 |
41 (T3) |
87 |
12 |
5 |
| T10. Janzen |
209 (-7) |
32 (T5) |
38 |
84 (T5) |
12 + 1E |
7 |
| T10. Stricker |
209 (-7) |
25 |
40 (T8) |
90 |
12 + 1E |
7 |
Performance Stats 54 Holes -
Stats thru Saturday exclude those who Missed the Cut
Top 10 Players in Boldface
|
Fairways - Average Performance for Field=
29.9 of 42 (71.2%) (excludes par 3s)
|
| Top 10: Mediate (37), Katayama (35), Sutton (33), Allenby
(33), Els (32), Janzen (32), Izawa (32), Waldorf
(32), Perry (32), Roberts (32), Brooks (32), Franco (32), Lowery
(32) |
Bottom 10: Lehman (23), Olazabal (23), Stricker (25), Weir (25),
Langham (26), Duval (27), Cabrera (27), Scherrer
(27), Toms (27), Couples (27) |
|
Greens in Regulation - Average Performance
for Field= 36.7 of 54 (67.9%)
|
| Top 10: Woods (47), Waldorf (45), Faxon (41),
Maggert (41), Sutton (41), Lehman (41), Brooks (41), Calcavecchia
(40), Triplett (40), Stricker (40), Perry (40),
Franco (40) |
Bottom 10: Hart (31), Allenby (31), May (32), Leonard (32),
Harrington (32), Olazabal (33), Singh (33), Kaye (33),
Langham (33), Hoch (35), Appleby (35), Couples (35) |
|
Putting - Average Performance for Field=
88.4 for 54 holes (1.64 per hole)
|
| Top 10: Olazabal (80), Harrington (80), DiMarco
(81), Mickelson (83), Mediate (84), Janzen
(84), Jimenez (84), Singh (84), Els (85), Duval
(85), Cabrera (85), Leonard (85) |
Bottom 10: Appleby (97+), Lehman (97), Waldorf (96), Franco
(96), Brooks (95), Lowery (94), Perry (94), Woods 993),
Jones (93), Sutton (91), Maggert (91) |
|
Special Cases and Notables
|
| Woods |
Who needs putting? When you hit 47 of 54 green (that's 87%!!)
AND you're also STICKING 'EM CLOSE, you can be a birdie machine
without worrying too much about bogeys. And that's what Tiger
is doing - the ONLY top 10 player who is strong both birdies
and in keeping bogey-free. If Mickelson hadn't 3-jacked from
5 feet, and had only 2-putted from 5 feet, he would be a co-leader.
BACK NINE: Tiger (-6); Phil (-5). Also, Tiger is playing holes
10-11 better than Phil: Tiger bogeyed 10 once and birdie 11
once (even); Phil bogeyed 11 and bogey 10 once each (+2). Thru
Amen Corner (11-13) Woods is -2 and Mickelson is -1. It's Tiger's
to lose.
|
| Mickelson |
Tiger is giving Mickelson 10 strokes in putting and two in the
birdie battle, and Phil is only giving back 3 in the bogey department,
so why is Tiger not 9 strokes down to Phil? Greens in Regulation!
Tiger hit 8 more than Phil so far, and he really sticks it when
he gets there, too. So who needs putting? (Answer: everyone EXCEPT
Tiger.) |
| Calcavecchia |
The only player with a top-10 rank in BOTH GIRs and Putting,
and the CLEANEST card in the top 10, with only 2 bogeys and 1
double bogey. If he continues to avoid trouble and Tiger makes
a double bogey, Calc can make up the 2-stroke deficit in a heartbeat
and has a strong chance to win. Over the last 36 holes, he carded
10 birdies against only one bogey (-9), while Woods carded 13
birdies and 3 bogeys(-10), and Mickelson carded 13 birdies and
3 bogeys and 2 double bogeys (-6). He'll need at least a 67 to
win, which is probably less than 50% likely. It's Tiger's to lose. |
| DiMarco |
Putting is keeping him in the Top 5, but still not strong enough
with driver and irons. |
| Els |
Hitting a lot of fairways and putting great, but hit 11 fewer
greens than Tiger, and could use a few more birdies. Still, playing
very strong. Top-5 finish unless he messes up. |
| Duval |
Very good stats, real good putting, and a clean card with only
4 bogeys and 1 double bogey. Can he rip off 7 birdies and 1 bogey
like he did Friday to shoot 66? he could win, but he'll need some
help from Tiger, like a 70+ score (not likely). Probably top-5. |
| Cabrera |
Coming on like gangbusters Saturday until he double-bogeyed
the 15th and bogeyed the 18th to drop 3 shots. If he had just
parred out 15-18, he would be the co-leader now. Now way can he
spot Tiger 3 strokes over the final 18. |
| Triplett |
Great stats, nearly as good as Calcaveccha's, but just not getting
enough birdies. Played last 36 holes only -4, with 8 birdies and
4 bogeys (3 on Saturday). Might get in the top-5. |
| Mediate |
Top putting (T5) and 1st in Fairways, but he gives up ground
on GIRs (36 compared to Tiger's 47 and Calc's 40 and Phil's 39),
and he slips too often into bogey-land (6 bogeys and 1 double
so far). Had a fantastic round Saturday, 7 birdies and 1 bogey,
just like Duval on Friday, but that's too tough an act to follow
spotting Tiger 4 strokes into the final round. |
| Olazabal |
Missing fairways and greens, but great putting keeps him in
the top 10. Missed 5 more fairways than Tiger and missed 14 more
greens, but he's scrambling with his short game. If one could
only meld Tiger's GIRs and driver play with Olazabal's short game
and putting .... Tiger would have at least a 10 stroke lead over
the field now, or more. |
| Janzen |
Gone. Janzen's putting is keeping him in the race, but he's
just not converting enough birdie chances. Carded 5 bogeys on
Saturday. |
| Faxon |
Hitting lots of GIRs, but just not converting birdies. Putting
is so-so. Strong over last 36 holes, with 10 birdies and 2 bogeys
(-8). |
| Singh |
Still putting great (T5), but not hitting too many greens and
carded 4 bogeys on Saturday. 213 T23. |
| Lehman |
Absolutely terrible on hitting fairways, and absolutely terrible
on putting. But he hits a lot of greens in regulation and is scrambling,
so he's still clinging on for a Top-25 finish at the Masters --
game player needing some putting help! 214 T25. |
| Waldorf |
Holy cow! Second only to Tiger in GIRs (45), and hit 4 more
fairways -- he just takes too many putts (96) - a real waste of
opportunities. Carded 6 bogeys on Saturday. |
|
36-Hole Executive Summary
|
| Generally speaking, PGA Tour events are seldom won unless the
winner ranks in the top 10 in either GIR or Putting (Strcker and
Duval have neither so far); at a minimum, the winner needs a top-10
in one of these two, plus at least a top-25 in the other (Tiger
is an exception here); a player who has a top-5 in one and a top-10
in the other (no one yet claims this distinction), or even top-10
in both GIR and Putting (no one yet), is very very hard to beat.
The stats rankings after the first two rounds is a pretty good
indicator of where things are headed. |
|
Saturday Morning Halfway Point Reality Check
|
Best of Leaders
|
Top 10 |
Strong
|
Weak
|
| Player |
Score |
Fairways
Top 10= 22-25
|
Greens in Reg.
Top 10= 28-31
|
Total Putts
Top 10=51-56 |
Birdies,
Eagles (E)
|
Bogeys, Double (D) |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. DiMarco |
134 (-10) |
18 |
26 |
52 (2nd) |
12 |
2 |
| T2. Woods |
136 (-8) |
19 |
31 (T-1st) |
60 |
12 |
4 |
| T2. Mickelson |
136 | |
