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The only four players with a realistic shot at the Green Jacket are Woods, Goosen, Singh, and Mickelson. Players at -6 are very probably too far back to win, since it would take a 66 while all four of the leading players shoot 72 or higher. Not likely. Top 5 probably -10 or lower. Possible / likely Top 10: Woods, Goosen, Singh, Mickelson, Els, Garcia, Harrington, Olazabal, and one of either Bjorn, Cabrera, or Weir.
In the matchup between Goosen and Woods, the advantage is Woods from prior Masters experience and mental toughness. If Woods falters, he WILL recover. If Goosen falters, he PROBABLY WILL recover. Although Goosen has a slight edge in putting, Woods knows the greens and it all depends on who is sticking approach shots. The key will probably end up being one of the par 3s.
| POS |
PLAYER
|
SCORE |
TO PAR
|
PAR 3s
|
PAR 4s
|
PAR 5s
|
DRIVES
|
GREENS
|
PUTTS
|
COMMENT
|
|
|
Range
|
Rnd 3
|
65 to 77 |
-11 to
+7
|
-2 to +3
|
-5 to +5
|
-4 to +1
|
238 to
310.5
|
7 to 15
|
25 to 35
|
||
|
Cum
|
205 to
223
|
-4 to
+5
|
-8 to +11
|
-7 to +1
|
261.167
to 303.1.67
|
26 to 41
|
79 to 95
|
||||
| 32 | Allenby |
73 70 76 -
219
|
3
|
1 / 1
|
1 / 6
|
-1 / -4
|
280 / 281.167
|
10 / 34
|
32 / 90
|
||
| 8 | Bjorn |
74 67 70 -
211
|
-5
|
2 / 1
|
E / E
|
-4 / -6
|
250 / 274
|
12 / 35
|
28 / 86
|
Strong showing, but needs to master par 4s. If he shoots 69, he ought to stay in the top 10, but probably will fall back a spot or two. | |
| 22 | Brooks |
74 72 71 -
217
|
1
|
-2 / -1
|
1 / 7
|
E / -5
|
265 / 272.333
|
11 / 29
|
28 / 83
|
Probably will drop a few spots. | |
| 10 | Cabrera |
68 71 73 -
212
|
-4
|
E / E
|
2 / 2
|
-1 / -6
|
283 / 290
|
8 / 31
|
28 / 83
|
As rain shortened his drives, he found it harder to hit GIRs. Should finish in top 10. | |
| 17 | Cink |
74 70 72 -
216
|
E
|
1 / 1
|
1 / 6
|
-2 / -7
|
271 / 273
|
13 / 33
|
33 / 89
|
Missed 4 or 5 birdie opportunities in Rnd 3 with poor putting. | |
| 22 | Clarke |
70 74 73 -
217
|
1
|
E / E
|
-1 / 1
|
2 / E
|
288.5 / 293.667
|
11 / 35
|
30 / 90
|
Just too many bogeys Rnds 2 & 3. | |
| 42 | Couples |
73 73 76 -
222
|
6
|
3 / 2
|
1 / 5
|
E / -1
|
287 / 288.667
|
8 / 34
|
29 / 94
|
||
| 22 | Daly |
74 73 70
- 217
|
1
|
-1 / -2
|
2 / 8
|
-3 / -5
|
310.5 / 302.667
|
9 / 26
|
25 / 80
|
Long and pretty solid putting, but not getting GIRs out of his drives. | |
| 11 | DiMarco |
70 71 72 -
213
|
-3
|
E / -1
|
1 / -1
|
-1 / -1
|
242.5 / 261.167
|
14 / 37
|
31 / 88
|
Short-knocker hanging tough with lots of GIRs and good putting. probably will just miss the top 15. | |
| 4 | Els |
70 67 72 -
209
|
-7
|
-1 / -3
|
3 / 2
|
-2 / -6
|
304.5 / 295
|
8 / 31
|
27 / 79
|
Averaged 25 yards shorter with drives in Rnd 2 compared to Rnd 3 but Rnd 2 had 13 GIRs, while Rnd 3 had only 8! Very good putting. Should finish in top 5 but can't win. | |
| 36 | Estes |
73 72 75 -
220
|
4
|
-1 / -4
|
4 / 11
|
E / -3
|
282 / 276.833
|
9 / 31
|
29 / 87
|
||
| 13 | Faldo |
75 67 73 -
215
|
-1
|
-2 / -2
|
4 / 5
|
-1 / -4
|
262.5 / 274
|
12 / 31
|
31 / 83
|
Not getting a good bead on par 4s, could be 3-4 strokes lower ... great 2nd Rnd with only 23 total putts on 12 GIRs. Not likely to remain in top 15. | |
| 13 | Faxon |
71 75 69 -
215
|
-1
|
1 / 2
|
-3 / E
|
-1 / -3
|
274 / 276.167
|
13 / 31
|
28 / 85
|
Strong move in Rnd 3 with 13 GIRs, and might make top 10. | |
| 4 | Garcia |
68 71 70 -
209
|
-7
|
-1 / -2
|
E / E
|
-1 / -5
|
272 / 289.5
|
13 / 34
|
30 / 85
|
Very steady play at a high level, but needs to birdie the par 4s. Expect 12-13 GIRs in Rnd 4 and a closing 69 for top 5 finish? | |
| 1 | Goosen |
69 67 69 -
205
|
-11
|
-1 / 2
|
E / -8
|
-2 / -5
|
238 / 294
|
11 / 39
|
27 / 80
|
Only player in the 60s each round. Master of the par 4s. Note how short he was with driver in Rnd 3, and gave up 2-3 GIRs as a price. Will need a cushion from the front 9 of 2 shots to win, so he needs 3-4 birdies and for Woods to make 1 bogey on the front 9. Should finish with 12-13 GIRs and 69-70 to take 2nd. | |
| 8 | Harrington |
69 70 72 -
211
|
-5
|
1 / 1
|
2 / -3
|
-3 / -3
|
285 / 283.833
|
12 / 38
|
29 / 88
|
One of the steadiest players this year. With some luck, he can shoot 69-70 and might make it into top 5, but probably between 6-10. | |
| 29 | Howell |
74 73 71 -
218
|
2
|
E / 3
|
E / 2
|
-1 / -3
|
291 / 299.833
|
14 / 34
|
31 / 89
|
||
| 13 | Jimenez |
70 71 74 -
215
|
-1
|
3 / 2
|
1 / 4
|
-2 / -7
|
266 / 273.333
|
9 / 29
|
27 / 79
|
Too short to get into the 11-13 GIR range. Not likely to remain in top 15. | |
| 22 | Kelly |
72 74 71 -
217
|
1
|
1 / E
|
E / 5
|
-2 / -4
|
282.5 / 280.833
|
7 / 27
|
25 / 82
|
||
| 29 | Langer |
73 72 73 -
218
|
2
|
1 / -1
|
3 / 4
|
-3 / -1
|
265 / 270.667
|
11 / 32
|
29 / 85
|
Steady but inglorious. Too short to birdie the long par 4s. | |
| 32 | Leonard |
70 75 74 -
219
|
3
|
E / 1
|
3 / 7
|
-1 / -5
|
276.5 / 279
|
9 / 33
|
27 / 87
|
Hit 13 GIRs in Rnd 2 but took 33 putts - ouch! Lot of cash spent on those greens. Ought to move up maybe 10 spots. | |
| 17 | Love |
67 75 74 -
216
|
E
|
1 / 1
|
1 / 6
|
-2 / -7
|
271 / 273
|
13 / 33
|
33 / 89
|
Played a long course in Rnd 2, putted poorly in Rnd 3. Could get lucky and make the top 15. | |
| 42 | Lowery |
75 71 76 -
222
|
6
|
2 / 5
|
1 / 3
|
1 / -2
|
267 / 271.5
|
12 / 30
|
32 / 85
|
||
| 36 | Murayama |
75 72 73 -
220
|
4
|
2 / 4
|
E / 7
|
-1 / -7
|
268.5 / 281.333
|
13 / 31
|
33 / 90
|
13 GIRs and 33 putts in Rnd 3 -- not good (about 4 too many). Getting better at par 4s but way too late. | |
| 22 | Mayfair |
74 71 72 -
217 -
|
1
|
E / -1
|
1 / 5
|
-1 / -3
|
266 / 261.333
|
13 / 35
|
29 / 87
|
Short-knocker sticking lots of greens and putting pretty well, but probably can't go much lower. | |
| 22 | McGinley |
72 74 71 -
217
|
1
|
E / -1
|
1 / 4
|
-2 / -2
|
270 / 279.167
|
9 / 27
|
26 / 83
|
||
| 36 | Mediate |
75 68 77 -
220
|
4
|
1 / 1
|
3 / 5
|
1 / -2
|
271.5 / 271.8333
|
9 / 33
|
29 / 87
|
||
| 4 | Mickelson |
69 72 68 -
209
|
-7
|
-1 / 1
|
-1 -1
|
-2 / -7
|
278 / 297.5
|
14 / 38
|
28 / 87
|
Pretty solid iron play, would be 2-3 strokes lower except for putting in Rnd 2. Too far back to catch Woods, especially comparing par 4 play. Might pass Singh, though, for 3rd, if he shoots 69-70. | |
| 17 | Montgomerie |
75 71 70 -
216
|
E
|
E / 2
|
-1 / 1
|
-1 / -3
|
281 / 285.667
|
10 / 32
|
26 / 85
|
1st Rnd played par 3s and par 5s without much success, although putting was decent. Putter let-down in Rnd 2. Should be at -7 now. Lucky if he stays in the top 20. | |
| 32 | Norman |
71 76 72 -
219
|
3
|
1 / E
|
-1 / 4
|
E / -1
|
273.5 / 279.333
|
8 / 32
|
28 / 92
|
Top player in Rnd 1 for GIRs but nothing since then. Shot 71 in 1st Rnd and with better putting it could have been 67-68. | |
| 7 | Olazabal |
70 69 71 -
210
|
-6
|
-1 / -3
|
3 / 4
|
-1 / -7
|
254.4 / 271.467
|
10 / 32
|
28 / 82
|
If he can hit 12 GIRs in Rnd 4, he ought to finish in the top 5 with a 69-70. | |
| 32 | Parnevik |
70 72 77 -
219
|
3
|
2 / 1
|
5 / 6
|
-2 / -4
|
279.5 / 282
|
10 / 32
|
32 / 87
|
Ought to move up 5 to 10 spots. | |
| 22 | Pernice |
74 72 71 -
217
|
1
|
E / E
|
E / 3
|
-1 / -2
|
281.5 / 280.667
|
12 / 31
|
27 / 81
|
||
| 17 | Price |
70 76 70 -
216
|
E
|
E / -2
|
E / 4
|
-2 / -2
|
267.5 / 278
|
16 / 36
|
33 / 91
|
16 GIRs in Rnd 3!! Holy cow! Squandered a chance at 65-66 with 33 putts, and only got 70 out of it. Not likely to stay in top 20. | |
| 13 | Scott |
71 72 72 -
215
|
-1
|
-1 / E
|
1 / 2
|
E / -3
|
277.5 / 286.167
|
10 / 34
|
28 / 86
|
Having a little trouble finding GIRs in Rnds 2 & 3. Will need 70 or better to make top 15, but very nice showing! | |
| 3 | Singh |
70 65 72
- 207
|
-9
|
-1 / -2
|
1 / -2
|
E / -5
|
275 / 282.333
|
12 / 38
|
29 / 84
|
Top 5 player for GIRs, very steady, just missed 2 putts in Rnd 3. Doubtful he can catch either Goosen or Woods now, but should hold onto 3rd spot. Will need 68 or better to get in a playoff. | |
| 17 | Sluman |
73 72 71 -
216
|
E
|
E / 1
|
2 / 7
|
-3 / -6
|
268 / 275.333
|
10 / 35
|
27 / 89
|
Needs to average 275+ with driver, hit 12 GIRs, and putt a little better to shoot 70 and hold top-20 finish. | |
| 39 | Stadler |
73 72 76
- 221
|
5
|
-1 / -1
|
5 / 8
|
E / -2
|
278 / 272.167
|
13 / 36
|
35 / 95
|
13 GIRs but 35 putts in Rnd 3 - ugh. Bag full of 3-jacks! | |
| 44 | Toms |
73 74 76 -
223
|
7
|
E / 2
|
4 / 8
|
E / 1
|
262 / 276.5
|
11 / 32
|
30 / 86
|
A handfull of costly mistakes. | |
| 29 | Triplett |
74 70 74 -
218
|
2
|
E / 1
|
2 / 3
|
E / -2
|
261.5 / 270
|
11 / 32
|
29 / 86
|
||
| 39 | Verplank |
70 75 76 -
221
|
5
|
-1 / -1
|
5 / 8
|
E / -2
|
264 / 273.333
|
7/ 32
|
29 / 89
|
||
| 44 | Watson |
71 76 76 -
223
|
7
|
1 / 5
|
3 / 5
|
E / -3
|
264.5 / 265.333
|
10 / 34
|
33 / 91
|
||
| 12 | Weir |
72 71 71 -
214
|
-2
|
-1 / E
|
1 / 2
|
-1 / -4
|
270 / 281
|
15 / 41
|
32 / 94
|
Tops in GIRs!! But cool putter and keeps coming off the greens without birdies. Likely to fall back several spots. | |
| 39 | Westwood |
75 72 74 -
221
|
5
|
E / -1
|
3 / 10
|
-1 / -4
|
278 / 274.167
|
10 / 28
|
30 / 84
|
||
| 1 | Woods |
70 69 66 -
205
|
-11
|
1 / 1
|
-5 / -7
|
-2 / -5
|
294.5 / 303.167
|
14 / 40
|
27 / 85
|
2nd in GIRs so far (1 behind Weir) and putting pretty well! 2nd on par 4s to Goosen's -8 and they are matched evenly on the par 5s so far. Looks like the first to bogey loses, or the first to birdie 1-2 of the par 3s wins. Will need a 69 to avoid a playoff, which he can do fairly easily with one birdie on a par 4 and 2 on the par 5s and no bogeys. If he bags 2 birdies on the front 9, he's gone. | |
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